The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Inclusion
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
System personality modelling from urbanization around energy limitations inside the Asia
Regardless if metropolitan expansion carry out speed opportunity use 17,18,19 , this new automobile electricity have fun with tends to associate adversely toward urbanization level due to economic climates out of level 20,21,twenty two . For instance, a whole lot more urbanized portion from inside the Canada consumed lower for every capita energy 23 . At the same time, full time consumption of rural domiciles are larger than compared to urban properties, as more than 85% of outlying home have fun with ineffective solid-fuel twenty four . Based on Customer Analysis Platform, 275 urban centers around the globe fool around with hydropower, 189 metropolises have fun with wind strength, and you can 184 metropolises play with solar power photovoltaic energy. At the very least one hundred metropolises play with renewable power to reach 70% of stamina, such Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you will Nairobi. In america, 58 metropolises, together with Atlanta and you will North park, keeps plans to change in order to one hundred% tidy and renewable power. With the present technology and energy shops, it is likely to go 100% renewable power supply internationally and you may achieve zero carbon emissions because of the 2025. The global strength age group framework when you look at the 2050 is anticipated given that less than: solar power solar pv (69%), wind strength (18%), hydropower (8%), and you can biomass (2%), with time stores electric batteries coating 30% regarding stamina consult. It’s detailed that every of world’s premier dams and strength web sayfası vegetation are located in Asia, while Yunnan State and you will Guizhou Province lead 29% regarding China’s hydropower. The brand new Jinsha Lake alone provides an effective nine-top dam. The fresh strength made by this type of hydropower is personally sent to help you Guangdong and you will Hong kong from the large-voltage grid. As a result of the numerous hydropower tips available for air conditioning, Guizhou Province has become China’s main studies cardiovascular system base. In the 2018, Apple Organization created the latest iCloud investigation cardiovascular system when you look at the Guizhou. Just about every large It organization off China keeps setup research facilities within the Guizhou, in addition to Alibaba, Huawei, and you will China Cellular.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.